ST. LOUIS – Incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley enjoys a comfortable, albeit shrinking, lead over Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce.
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll finds Hawley with 46.8% of support, with Kunce at 37.6%. Ten percent are undecided, with 5.3% of respondents saying they’re voting for someone else.
Since February, Hawley’s support has increased by four points, from 43% to 47%, while Kunce’s support increased by eight points, from 30% to 38%.
“Kunce is actually winning independents narrowly right now, 37%-32% for Hawley. The problem is there are simply just more Republicans,” states Emerson College Senior Polling Director, Matt Taglia. “Hawley has the benefit of winning majorities of voters over the age of 50. This poll shows us that it’s his race to lose.”
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey contacted 1,000 registered Missouri voters—328 Democrats, 430 Republicans, and 242 independents or other affiliations—resulting in a credibility interval of +/-3%.
“The share of voters who say abortion is the most important issue facing their state in Missouri is higher than any state poll we have conducted in the past year,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“These voters break for Biden and Kunce on the ballot in November, for Biden over Trump 83% to 13% and Kunce over Hawley 79% to 12%. Voters who say the economy is the top issue break for Trump 72% to 21%, and Hawley 65% to 19%.”
Missouri, which was once considered a bellwether state, has become a safe state for Republicans on the ballot. Since 2000, voters have backed the Republican candidate for president, including an 18.5% margin of victory in the 2016 election.
Republicans control both branches of the Missouri Legislature as well as the state’s entire executive branch: the offices of governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, and auditor.
“Kunce is actually winning independents narrowly right now, 37%-32% for Kunce. The problem is there are simply just more Republicans,” Matt Taglia, Emerson College’s senior polling director, said. “Hawley has the benefit of winning majorities of voters over the age of 50. This poll shows us that it’s his race to lose.”
In 2018, Hawley ousted incumbent Claire McCaskill by a margin of 51.5% to 45.5%.
The Missouri General Election is Tuesday, November 5. There will be 33 Senate seats up for grabs in the fall.
Emerson College Polling, The Hill, and Nexstar Missouri conducted this poll. Review our methodology and data here.
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