MISSOURI – The Republican primary campaign for Missouri governor is heating up in the wake of our exclusive Missouri Nexstar, The Hill, and Emerson College polls showing the race has tightened dramatically.
The campaign for Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft put out a reminder Monday, citing the poll and reminding people that he remained the front-runner, in spite of Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe spending millions of dollars on TV ads.
Kehoe’s campaign has just announced an endorsement from Missouri sheriffs, saying his “unprecedented statewide support continues to grow.”
Eigel’s campaign calls public polls “worthless.”
The poll, released Friday, shows Ashcroft leading Kehoe by less than three percent, 22.5% to 19.6%, which is within the margin of error. Eigel is a distant third with 5.9%. It was also revealed that 46% of likely Republican voters are undecided.
A new Missouri scout, Remington Research poll, has very similar results: Ashcroft is up by just two points over Kehoe, with Eigel a distant third, and 31% undecided.
The drastic turnaround for Kehoe is visible when the polls are compared to the Missouri Scout/Remington poll from July 2023.
Ashcroft led that poll by 20 points: 34% for Ashcroft, 14% for Kehoe, and 4% for Eigel.
The tightening race was the top topic of FOX 2’s Sunday morning political show, Hancock and Kelley. Republican consultant John Hancock works for a PAC that supports Kehoe. He expects quite a pushback from Ashcroft in the final weeks leading up to the August 6 Primary.
“He’s going to be able to go up on television just after the Fourth of July and those last four weeks is going to be a race to the finish. It’s going to be close,” Hancock said.
As for this essentially now being a two-person race, Democrat consultant Michael Kelley agreed with Hancock: Eigel will be a factor.
“I think it’s more about putting the spotlight on himself and his agenda,” Kelley said. “He’s really a lot like Donald Trump in that way. He’s flamboyant; he’s over the top. It turns a lot of voters off. He’s probably going to play spoiler in this race.”
Both expected Eigel to draw more votes away from Ashcroft than Kehoe. Both agreed that the winner of the Republican Primary was most likely to become Missouri’s next governor.
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